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Works in Progress

For early drafts, email me!

Civil Service Reform and the Organization of the Federal Government
With Jon Rogowski

We map the offices and individuals that comprised the US federal government from the founding through the 1950s. With these new data, we intend to better understand the motivations that led to civil service reform and its effects on the federal workforce.

Misaligned Voting Diagnostics
With Andy Eggers

Misaligned voting, when one casts a vote for a candidate they do not prefer to all others, is an important characteristic of voting systems. It may implicate strategic voting, confusion, or other behaviors. Misaligned voting is difficult to identify, and current methods may make biased estimates in identifying the overall rate and in identifying differences between voting systems. They are also ill-equipped to take in more than one dimension of voter preferences. Wepropose two new metrics, the convex hull and weak domination approaches, and test their performance in a series of simulations.

By Loyalty and Leverage: Presidential Influence at the Federal Reserve

Pundits and central bankers alike tout the independence and apolitical stance of the Federal Reserve System, but presidents have long sought to influence monetary policy for electoral ends. Do presidents exert influence over the Federal Reserve? I identify two potential channels: the selection of co-partisan appointees on the Board of Governors (loyalty) and the president’s capacity to incentivize these policymakers (leverage). I test these possible channels of influence with novel data sources. I find that the Federal Reserve has been influenced by direct meetings with the president, and I provide tentative evidence against presidential influence through Congress or public opinion. These findings cast light on the mechanisms and effects of presidential influence over monetary policy and further our understanding of the extent and nature of the Federal Reserve’s independence and the limits of the presidency’s influence over the administrative state.



Not by Popular Demand: Public Attitudes Towards Government Service Provision
With Kevin Angell

As federal, state, and local governments work to administer and deliver public services, they face a wide array of options from direct political control to broad contracts with private entities. Large shares of government services are now delivered by non-governmental organizations with many service-providers exercising substantial discretion over program operation. How does the American public view such delegation of public services to private entities? Using a survey experiment of 2,000 American adults, we find that the public does not prefer private, for-profit entities compared with bureaucratic agencies or direct legislative control. Contrary to arguments made by many politicians, respondents are less likely to view them as likely to provide high-quality or cost-effective services. While non-profit contractors receive more support than for-profit contractors, the public is most supportive of specialized government agencies. Support for specialized government agencies is also greater than for direct control by elected representatives, indicating that the public favors expertise over direct responsiveness. Taken together, these results suggest that the American public does not enthusiastically support privatization and, in fact, dislikes it.


Pre-analysis plan available on request

Publications

What’s New in CARTS 2.1? Updates to Our Index Tracking National Retail Sales
With Scott Brave, Ross Cole, and Ezra Karger

A summary measure of multiple high-frequency indicators of retail sales (including payment card transactions, foot traffic, gas sales, and consumer sentiment), CARTS grew out of pandemic-era research that aimed to improve the timeliness and reliability of traditional measures of U.S. retail spending.

Racial Wealth Gains and Gaps: Nine Facts About the Disparities
With Kristen Broady, Anthony Barr, and Darlene Booth-Bell

Every three years, the Federal Reserve System conducts the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF)—one of the most detailed examinations of household wealth in the U.S. The two most recent surveys were conducted in 2019 and 2022, thus providing a valuable resource to researchers exploring wealth changes during the Covid-19 pandemic and recovery. This working paper draws from the SCF and other important sources to present data on the racial wealth gap and socioeconomic factors that impact the racial disparity in net worth between households by race and ethnicity. We demonstrate that the racial wealth gap continues to worsen, despite increased educational attainment, business formation, and homeownership.

Recent Findings and Methodologies in Economics Research in Environmental Justice
With Paige Weber, Danae Hernandez-Cortes, and Christopher Timmins

This review synthesizes economics-oriented research in environmental justice with a focus on the last decade. We first categorize this literature into broad areas of inquiry and review main findings. Then, we review recent advances in data and methodologies that have allowed for new study designs and research questions. After identifying breakthroughs, we offer some guidance on how to continue to advance research in this area.

Immigration and the Labor Market in the Post-Pandemic Recovery
With Kristin Butcher, Camillo Garcia-Jimeno, and Ryan Perry

Standard estimates based on the main household survey used to shed light on labor markets –the Current Population Survey (CPS)– suggest that after a significant drop during the pandemic, recent rapid growth has brought the foreign-born population back to, or above, levels predicted by the pre-pandemic trend. However, we document that the weighting factors used to make the CPS nationally representative have recently displayed some unusual movements and conclude that standard estimates of the foreign-born population may currently be too high. We also show that recent labor market indicators are inconsistent with increased foreign-born induced slack.

My Erdős number is finite, but only barely.
Computing it is an exercise left to the reader.